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Euribor Strip Weaker As UK Retail Sales and Hawkish Fedspeak Weigh

STIR

Euribor futures sit -0.5 to -5.0 ticks through the blues, with the reds under the most pressure.

  • The combination of hawkish Fed-speak overnight and a firmer-than-expected UK retail sales print has outweighed dovish ECB rhetoric from yesterday/this morning.
  • ECB-dated OIS shows 109bps of rate cuts through 2024 vs. 114bps yesterday afternoon.
  • Yesterday, Maltese Central Bank Governor Scicluna came across as one of the most dovish ECB-speakers seen in recent weeks, noting he is open to a rate cut in March.
  • Meanwhile, BdF's Villeroy stated that "acting gradually and pragmatically" r.e. the first rate cut "can be preferable to deciding too late and then having to over-adjust".
  • A reminder that speakers this week (e.g. Nagel and Lagarde) have warned against making hasty decisions on rate cuts, with it seemingly preferable to ease policy too late rather than too early.
  • Today’s regional focus will fall on ECB's Schnabel at 0845GMT/0945CET (stream here).
  • US PPI at 1330GMT/1430CET will also garner cross-market interest.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.900-1.1
Apr-243.795-11.6
Jun-243.580-33.1
Jul-243.397-51.4
Sep-243.181-73.0
Oct-243.004-90.7
Dec-242.819-109.2
Jan-252.672-123.9
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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