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Free AccessEURJPY Slumps Post ECB, NZD Outperforms
- Following the FOMC decision and amid the ongoing concerns for the US banking sector, the Japanese Yen has continued to benefit and is among the best performers in G10 on Thursday. With some residual pricing being pulled out for ECB hiking expectations following the ECB decision, the Euro has underperformed on the day.
- Despite sitting 50 points off session lows, EURJPY remains 0.9% lower as we approach the APAC crossover. The pair continues to retrace the post BOJ bounce from last Friday in what is considered to be a correction for now. Overall, the trend condition remains bullish following recent gains. Price action has seen pierce initial support at 147.50, the 20-day exponential moving average. Below here, key short-term support has been defined at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, where a break is required to signal a short-term reversal.
- In similar vein, USDJPY remained under pressure on Thursday, extending the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 137.77 high to over 400 pips. Today’s 133.50 low fell just shy of last Friday’s, BOJ day, low at 133.38. A clear breach of this support zone would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback.
- NZD was a standout today, leading the G10 advance. MNI reported last month the RBNZ’s focus would shift to employment figures, which would shape its May 24 decision. Tuesday’s robust data has underpinned NZD since and price action may have been exacerbated by the substantial move lower for AUDNZD to fresh one-month lows below 1.0650 in recent sessions.
- With the key driver for currency markets remaining the downward pressure on front-end US yields and the accumulation of Fed rate cut pricing later this year, emphasis will be on the latest US jobs data before the weekend close. Bloomberg consensus looks for further moderation in payrolls growth in April with the +182k estimate its softest since Dec’20, with less clear-cut potential impacts from weather and seasonal adjustment this month.
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.