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EURMXN Sees Good Follow Through Below 20.0550

MEXICO
  • Aided by the fact EURUSD is trading at its lowest level in twenty years, EURMXN has made fresh cycle/August lows and has breached a key support level.
  • With lows overnight at 19.8806, the pair has seen decent follow through following the break of 20.0550, which had been a very significant support point, dating back to 2017 and was very well respected around the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
    • As noted yesterday, Goldman Sachs said “for those looking to be long LatAm FX, we prefer staying short EUR/MXN, which allows for exposure to high LatAm yields, but with a tighter connection to a still-strong US growth outlook, and somewhat less vulnerability to further wobbles in China or the commodity complex.”
  • The focus on the domestic docket is tomorrow’s Bi-Weekly CPI data where headline CPI is expected to rise to 8.55% from 8.14% in the prior reading. While the data will be important for the central bank, most recent Banxico rhetoric points to a very high probability that they will follow the Fed at the September meeting.
  • With that said, Banxico minutes for the August meeting will be published on Thursday.

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