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Euro Gasoline Rallies on Refinery Disruptions and Octane Tightness

OIL PRODUCTS

The front month European gasoline crack spread is holding just above the previous close after seeing a strong rally last week to the highest since July 2022 and the highest for this time of year since at least 2011, according to Bloomberg data. Cracks have rallied amid refinery disruptions, hot weather, low inventories, and octane tightness.

  • Recent refinery disruptions have added to the crack support with hot weather in Europe making it harder to run lighter crudes according to Energy Aspects and Goldman Sachs.
  • The strength is also partly driven by octane tightness according to Sparta Commodities and likely being exacerbated by a number of unit outages over recent months.
  • Logistical issues, with dropping Rhine levels and ARA cargo congestion, could also be limiting the supply of gasoline blending components in NW Europe according to Wood Mackenzie.
  • Demand is good in Europe and the US according to FGE and supported by goods-to-services rotation, high global employment, and diesel-to-gasoline switching in Europe post diesel-gate according to Goldman Sachs.
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.5$/bbl at 28.41$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.5$/bbl at 39.11$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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