Europe Maintains Healthy LNG Imports and TTF Falls back

TTF is extending the pull back from the spike higher yesterday but is still 3€/MWh higher on the week. LNG sendout has dipped this month in line with the seasonal trend but is still strong for the time of year.

• The European supply fears pushed the TTF above JKM to spread of -5.6$/mmbtu to help maintain spot LNG supplies to Europe although the spread is back to -1.7 today as TTF falls back.
• Falling prices this year have increased interest from small Asian buyers but buying from key nations such as Japan and South Korea remains muted due to low demand and high inventory levels.
• The profitability of US LNG exports to Europe for August was estimated at 8.67$/mmbtu and to Asia at 9.84$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg before the TTF pull back today.
• Total European LNG sendout is back over 400mcm/d this week with strong supplies despite the lower US LNG exports this month due to Sabine Pass LNG maintenance.
• Total LNG imports into NW Europe decreased in June with UK imports the lowest since 2021 according to grid data. NW Europe has seen about 30 arrivals so far this month with just four into the UK compared to 27 shipments into the UK in May. Another 22 currently scheduled into NW Europe the next couple of weeks.
  • TTF JUL 23 down -14.3% at 35.25€/MWh
  • NBP JUL 23 down -14.5% at 88.09p/th
  • JKM Jul 23 up 2% at 9.58$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Jul 23 up 1.4$/mmbtu at -1.81$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas JUL 23 up 0.6% at 2.55$/mmbtu

Source: Bloomberg