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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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May's retail sales data suggested continued stagnation for European consumers: today's report showed a third consecutive month of flat Eurozone retail sales volumes.
- This shouldn't be surprising, with squeezed real incomes hurting consumption and confidence low (even if rebounding from 2022 lows).
- The data are not suggestive of a collapse but do represent a meaningful stagnation that should be taken in the context of volumes falling further below pre-pandemic trends.
- Eurozone retail volumes are roughly 3-4% below the level they would have been if the 2013-2020 growth trend had continued, and even until Q2 2022 when the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war started to be felt they were roughly in line.
- UK real retail sales meanwhile have actually picked up from late 2022 lows but are now around 11% below pre-pandemic trend.
- By the same metric, the US recovery from the pandemic stands out, where real retail sales (there is no official volume index, so CPI-deflated) have also been steady since mid-2021 but remain around 5% above their pre-pandemic trend.
- In this context, the US inflation squeeze continues to look more demand-led relative to the Eurozone and UK.
Source: Eurostat, ONS, Census Bureau, BLS, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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