Free Trial

European Contraction Fears Weigh On Fed Hikes

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have slipped with growing Eurozone contraction fears following notable misses in the preliminary PMIs for July with EA services at a 15-month low of 50.6 and mfg a 25-month low of 49.6.
  • Sitting with a 78bp hike priced for next week (-1bp), 139bp for Sep (-1.5bps) and 182.5bp for Dec (-5.5bps) to 3.41% now seen as terminal with larger drops further out and almost 60bps of cuts for 2023.
  • It ramps up focus on today’s US PMIs following a weak Philly Fed survey contradicting a tentative bounce in the Empire State survey.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.