EUROPEAN INFLATION
France Flash HICP for October on an annual basis was in-line with expectations at 1.54 %Y/Y (vs 1.5% consensus, 1.44% prior), and 0.27% M/M (vs 0.2% consensus, -1.30% prior). Whilst the national CPI came above Y/Y consensus at 1.17% Y/Y (vs 1.1% consensus, 1.10% prior) though in-line on a monthly basis at 0.22% M/M (vs 0.2% consensus, -1.24% prior). Looking at the details for the French national CPI (non-HICP):
- Services CPI (which makes up 51.6% of the national CPI index) softened to 2.22% Y/Y (vs 2.41% in September), the lowest reading since February 2022.
- Energy prices rose to -1.95% Y/Y (vs -3.31% prior), a less marked drop in energy prices was anticipated in our inflation preview. On a monthly basis, energy prices rose 0.89% M/M (vs -1.83% prior). This was driven by an increase in petroleum and gas product prices, in part likely due to the increase in regulated gas prices.
- Non-energy industrial goods firmed slightly although prices continued to fall by 0.18% Y/Y (vs -0.29% in September).
- Finally, Food CPI rose to 0.62% Y/Y (vs 0.46% in September).
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