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EUROPEAN INFLATION: France Flash Inflation A Touch Softer Than Expectations

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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France Flash HICP for November came a touch below expectations at 1.71% Y/Y (vs 1.8% consensus, 1.59% prior), and -0.12% M/M (vs 0.0% consensus, 0.27% prior). Similarly the national CPI came slightly below consensus at 1.34% Y/Y (vs 1.4% consensus, 1.2% prior), and -0.7% M/M (vs 0.0% consensus, 0.28% prior). Looking at the details for the French national CPI (non-HICP): 

  • Services CPI (which makes up 51.6% of the national CPI index) is estimated to have strengthened to 2.48% Y/Y (vs 2.35% in October), after reaching the lowest level since February 2022 last month.
  • Meanwhile, the downside move was driven by Food CPI which softened to 0.19% Y/Y (vs 0.62% prior), the lowest levels seen since June 2021.
  • Energy prices were less negative than previously at -0.74% (vs -1.83% prior). We suspect that this is broadly in-line with expectations due to base effects and a likely decline in regulated gas prices.
  • Non-energy industrial goods were broadly unchanged at -0.20% Y/Y (vs -0.18% prior).

 

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France Flash HICP for November came a touch below expectations at 1.71% Y/Y (vs 1.8% consensus, 1.59% prior), and -0.12% M/M (vs 0.0% consensus, 0.27% prior). Similarly the national CPI came slightly below consensus at 1.34% Y/Y (vs 1.4% consensus, 1.2% prior), and -0.7% M/M (vs 0.0% consensus, 0.28% prior). Looking at the details for the French national CPI (non-HICP): 

  • Services CPI (which makes up 51.6% of the national CPI index) is estimated to have strengthened to 2.48% Y/Y (vs 2.35% in October), after reaching the lowest level since February 2022 last month.
  • Meanwhile, the downside move was driven by Food CPI which softened to 0.19% Y/Y (vs 0.62% prior), the lowest levels seen since June 2021.
  • Energy prices were less negative than previously at -0.74% (vs -1.83% prior). We suspect that this is broadly in-line with expectations due to base effects and a likely decline in regulated gas prices.
  • Non-energy industrial goods were broadly unchanged at -0.20% Y/Y (vs -0.18% prior).