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European inflation the driver

BONDS
  • Inflation prints have been the key driver again this morning with German state data pointing to a 0.3-0.4ppt downside print for the national German print due out later and French HICP data 0.4ppt below consensus. Both of these helped push Bunds higher this morning (with USTs and gilts following). There is now less than 50bp of further hikes fully priced in, but the bigger moves in the German curve have been further out, with 2s10s bull flattening.
  • Peripheral spreads have widened and the Italian HICP print came in higher than expected by 0.5-0.6ppt but this has not reversed earlier moves, albeit it has stalled the rally.
  • We will receive the final German national and HICP prints at 13:00BST / 8:00ET. Today will also see the release of the MNI Chicago PMI and US JOLTs data as well as the Beige Book. In addition there will be comments from BOE's Mann and Fed's Collins, Bowman, Harker and Jefferson.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-8+ today at 114-09+ with 10y UST yields down -3.1bp at 3.657% and 2y yields down -1.1bp at 4.440%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.96 today at 136.15 with 10y Bund yields down -7.9bp at 2.260% and Schatz yields down -5.2bp at 2.720%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.78 today at 967.75 with 10y yields down -6.8bp at 4.175% and 2y yields down -8.8bp at 4.334%.
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