EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: Right-Wing Parties Cement Status As EPP Retains Top Spot

The European Parliament elections of 6-9 June delivered, as was widely expected, strong results for parties of the right and far-right. The centre-right European People's Party (EPP) retained its position as the largest single political grouping, but it faces a difficult task in negotiating an agreement with the other main moderate groups; the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the cenrist Renew Europe. 

• Preliminary results put the combined seat total for the three moderate groups at 400, well over the 361 seat majority threshold. In 2019, around one-third of the S&D group and just under 10% of Renew Europe did not back Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the EP's confirmatory vote. If that rejection rate is maintained it could prove enought to deny VdL a majority. 
• A major factor in determining group strength will be whether parties in the non-assigned 'others' or non-aligned non-inscrits end up joining any of the main blocs. These parties include Hungarian PM Viktor Orban's Fidesz, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). 
• Substantial losses for the environmentalist Green bloc and liberal Renew blocs, and gains for the right-wing ECR and far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) could see a swing away from focus on areas such as the EU Green Deal and towards curtailing immigration. 
• Rather than a right-wing surge, this election seemed more to cement the status of parties of the right in the EP as they shift from being political 'upstarts' to more established parties within the EU. 

Chart 1. Preliminary Results of 6-9 June European Parliament Election, Seats