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The full document is available via the link below:

MNI_EZ_DeepDive_Jun2021_EU_Update.pdf

We have updated our estimations (raising expected borrowing by E2bln in June) after the EU announced its issuance plans for the year and confirmed it would start issuing via its NGEU programme in June and planned to issue E80bln for its NGEU programme in 2021.

June Outlook

  • The MNI Markets team expects gross issuance to be around E11bln higher in June than in May. We look for E133bln of issuance, up from E122bln in May.
  • June will see E55bln of redemptions (E39bln in May) and E7bln of coupons (E18bln). This will leave net issuance at E68bln, not far from May's E65bln.
  • We look for syndications from Italy, Spain and Slovakia as well as the inaugural issuance of NextGenerationEU funds. Finland and/or Belgium could potentially issue in USD.

Contents

  • See page 2 for a comparison of issuance with last year for both May and YTD.
  • See pages 3-12 for country-by-country overviews of issuance so far this year, plans for the rest of the fiscal year and MNI's expectations of June issuance for each country.
  • See pages 13-14 for overviews of the 2021 calendar year in comparison to 2020.
  • See page 15-22 for bond and T-bill auction calendars for 2021.
  • See page 23-25 for a schedule of coupons and redemptions by country for 2021.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 | tim.davis@marketnews.com