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EURSEK At Lowest Levels Since May

SEK

SEK begins the day toward the top of the G10 alongside the JPY and NZD, with EURSEK breaking through the first key support of 11.4049 (Jul 13 low). The cross now sits at the lowest levels since May but is off intraday lows at typing.

  • No clear drivers for the move at present, with the Riksbank meeting on Thursday the main event looming over markets. Current consensus among analysts is for a 25bps hike, but the majority is thin with only 13/21 of those surveyed by Bloomberg expecting such a move.
  • This is at odds with current market pricing per SEB's estimates on Friday, which showed only 6bps priced for the November meeting (i.e. 24% chance of a 25bps hike).
  • EURSEK now trades in a region with few technical cues, with the 1.00 projection of the Sep 18 - Sep 29 - Oct 31 price swing at 11.3230 the next potential area of interest.
  • The MNI Markets Team's full preview for the Riksbank meeting will be released later today.
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