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SEK: EURSEK Pierces Trendline Resistance, Riksbank Expected To Cut This Week

SEK
USBulletSwedenMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America

Ongoing DeepSeek-driven risk off has weighed on the risk-sensitive Scandi currencies, with EURSEK up 0.35% and EURNOK up 0.55% at typing. EURSEK has pierced trendline resistance drawn from the November 21 high, exposing the 38.2% retracement of the September to November bull leg at 11.5329 on the upside.

  • The Riksbank decision headlines this week’s Swedish calendar. Although a 25bp cut is widely expected by analysts (21/22 of those surveyed by BBG expect such a decision), it is only ~80% implied by markets.
  • Although this suggests scope for some short-term SEK weakness in the event of a 25bp cut, the dovish signal will likely be countered by cautious policy statement and press conference language.
  • There is a heavy Swedish data calendar this week too, with the flash Q4 GDP indicator, household lending, retail sales and Economic Tendency Indicator all scheduled. These will be key inputs into the Riksbank’s assessment of the economy and the impact of past rate cuts, but will play a more prominent role in March, where an updated MPR and rate path will be presented. 
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Ongoing DeepSeek-driven risk off has weighed on the risk-sensitive Scandi currencies, with EURSEK up 0.35% and EURNOK up 0.55% at typing. EURSEK has pierced trendline resistance drawn from the November 21 high, exposing the 38.2% retracement of the September to November bull leg at 11.5329 on the upside.

  • The Riksbank decision headlines this week’s Swedish calendar. Although a 25bp cut is widely expected by analysts (21/22 of those surveyed by BBG expect such a decision), it is only ~80% implied by markets.
  • Although this suggests scope for some short-term SEK weakness in the event of a 25bp cut, the dovish signal will likely be countered by cautious policy statement and press conference language.
  • There is a heavy Swedish data calendar this week too, with the flash Q4 GDP indicator, household lending, retail sales and Economic Tendency Indicator all scheduled. These will be key inputs into the Riksbank’s assessment of the economy and the impact of past rate cuts, but will play a more prominent role in March, where an updated MPR and rate path will be presented.