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Expected +/- Factors For Sept Inflation: Energy Mixed (2/2)

EUROZONE
  • Core goods prices (-ve factor): Softening producer price data suggests continued weakness in manufactured goods prices, though the shifting around of summer sales periods has made the seasonality of clothing/footwear prices in particular harder to call.
  • August EZ non-energy industrial goods 4.7% Y/Y, +0.6% M/M
  • Overall services prices (-ve factor): Summer 2023 was seen as having represented the peak for services prices, with a variety of volatile categories including airfares and holidays set to moderate in the rest of the year due to both base and weighting effects. Most notably of all, the introduction of the 9 euro transportation ticket in Germany in summer 2022 boosted base effects this year through August but this will drop out in September.
  • Some analysts see the September flash PMI data as pointing to stubborn services pressure but not enough to keep this category from weighing down aggregate readings.
  • August EZ services 5.5% Y/Y, +0.2% M/M.

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