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Expected +/- Negative Factors For Sept Inflation: Energy Mixed (1/2)

EUROZONE
From MNI's Eurozone Inflation preview - below are various key components to watch in the national and Euro CPI flash prints published Thu-Fri Sep 28-29:
  • Energy prices (mixed factor): Household energy prices (electricity/gas) will remain a deflationary factor Y/Y, and on aggregate are set to act as a disinflationary sequential force in September. But the dynamics will be very mixed, with Spain seeing higher electricity tariffs, but Italian and German prices softer (France’s are set to be flattish after August’s electricity price increases). Fuel prices however are set to increase sequentially, with oil prices rebounding. August EZ energy: -3.3% Y/Y, +3.3% M/M
  • Further easing of food price pressures (-ve factor): From March’s peak around 15% Y/Y, food prices (both processed and unprocessed) are seen continuing to continue disinflating below 10% in September, though some expect a small M/M SA increase.
  • August EZ food/alcohol /tobacco: 9.7% Y/Y, 0.0% M/M; unprocessed 7.8% Y/Y, -0.6% M/M

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