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Expects 25bps Hike at This Week's Meeting and Subsequently to 8.00%

POLAND
  • The lower than expected core CPI provides modest relief to the NBP. So too does the Fed pivot narrative, the move higher in EUR/USD over the past month and the parallel rebound in Zloty vs Euro. This means that if the NBP remains resolute on keeping rates unchanged (at 6.75%), it can probably get away with doing so near-term.
  • Yet, such favorable market circumstances may be short-lived, we have been in-and-out of this situation several times this year. A potentially premature exit is a risky strategy, and Governor Glapinski’s experience of stubborn defiance of data and markets in 2021 has likely made him more cautious.
  • The central bank will be geared with new macro forecasts, which will show core CPI around 1%-pt higher than before, and likely returning to target only in 2025. JPM expect that the NBP will hike 25bp next week and in each of the next few meetings (up to 8%), presenting it as a data-dependent fine-tuning of the hiking cycle.
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