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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
China headline exports were weaker than expected in June (in USD terms). We printed at -12.4% y/y, versus -10.0% forecast and -7.5% prior. This is the weakest y/y print since early 2020. On the import side, we were also a touch weaker than expected, -6.8% y/y in USD terms, against a -4.1% forecast and -4.5% prior. This left the trade balance at $70.62bn, versus a consensus estimate of $74.90bn.
- The export result is arguably not that surprising, given trends elsewhere in Asia, although South Korea is showing some signs of export growth basing, see the chart below (China is the pink line).
- This and the fact that the CNY NEER is already at cyclical lows, may be limiting the initial fall out for CNH, which hasn't seen any material selling pressure post the data prints (last around 7.1700/10). Broader USD trends, post the CPI print on Wednesday are also dominating to some extent.
- On the import side, despite the headline miss, commodity imports appear to be holding up reasonably well. Iron ore +7.7% y/y, copper +7.9% y/y and crude oil +11.7% y/y. Coal is also up very storngly, over 90% y/y. This may give some sense that the domestic demand backdrop is not faltering too rapidly.
Fig 1: China Exports Weaken, In Line With Other NEA/Export Orientated Economies
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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