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Exports Still Printing Negative Y/Y, Trade Deficit Widens In First 20-days Of August

SOUTH KOREA

South Korea's first 20-days of trade data for August was reasonably close to prior outcomes. For exports we printed at -16.5% y/y, the prior outcome being -15.2%. Note full month exports y/y for July were -16.5%. On the import side we were at -27.9% y/y, prior was -28.0% (full July month -25.4%). The trade deficit printed at -$3.566bn for the first 20-days of August.

  • The headline export number takes us back towards recent lows from early in 2023/late last year. We were slightly better on a daily average basis, with exports down -10.7% y/y. The chart below shows that this suggests a slightly less adverse y/y backdrop for the full August month print.
  • The detail indicated that chip exports were down -24.7% y/y, versus -35.4% prior. While exports to China fell -27.5%y/y. The US also slipped back to -7.2% y/y, from -7.3% in July.
  • The trade deficit does tend to improve in the final part of the month, so the full August number should be better than the first 20-day outcome. Still, note that the first 20-days trade deficit for July was -$1.361bn, so for August we have seen a re-widening.

Fig 1: South Korea Exports - First 20-Days Versus Full-Month Y/Y


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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