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Extending Highs After Fed Keeps Rates Steady, March Cut Unlikely

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are extending highs into the close (TYH4 112-18.5 +30.5, 10Y yield 3.9199% low) after paring post-FOMC gains following Chairman Powell said chances of a rate cut at the next FOMC on March 20 was unlikely.
  • Chairman Powell was more balanced on net, however, while providing his own executive summary: Growth is solid to strong over the course of last year; 3.7% unemployment indicates that the labor market is strong. We have had just about two years now of unemployment under 4% -- that hasn't happened in 50 years, so it is a good labor market. And we have seen inflation come down. So, we have six months of good inflation data and expectation there is more to come. Let's be honest, this is a good economy. But what is the Outlook? We expect growth to moderate."
  • Rates gained after this morning's lower than expected ADP Employment Change: 107k vs. 135k est (prior down-revised to 158k from 164k). Further supported after Tsy Quarterly Refunding announcement and Employment Cost Index at 0.9% vs. 1.0% est.
  • Focus turns to Weekly Claims, Flash PMIs, ISMs tomorrow followed by headline employment data for January on Friday.

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