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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSY FUTURES
Treasury futures extend post-NFP data highs after brief pull-back over last hour, yield curves holding steeper (2s10s +6.641 at -90.668 vs. -87.579) as short end surges higher: June'23 2Y futures (TUM3) +17.38 at 102-06.75, 2Y yield slips to 4.5820% (5.08% early Wednesday).
- Looking past the stronger than expected February jobs gain of +311k vs. +225k est, underlying factor driving rates higher: concern that contagion from rout in bank stocks will push the Fed to pause, lower their hiking cycle. This following SIVB's steep decline since Thursday (appr -68% pre-market, news pending), First Republic -38%, Zions -15.14%.
- Fed terminal rate has fallen to 5.25% in August'23, compared to 5.69% early Thursday high for October'23.
- Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 33.6bp vs 42.1bp early Thursday, May'23 cumulative 61.3bp to 5.179%, Jun'23 71.1bp to 5.280%.
- Rate cuts back in the mix by the fall: Sep'23 cumulative 65.8bp to 5.229%, Nov'23 56.6bp to 5.109.
BBG/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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