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Extending Highs on ECB Policymaker Comments on Cuts

US TSY FUTURES
  • Reuters headlines providing lift for Treasury futures in late trade:
    • ECB POLICYMAKERS OPEN TO START DISCUSSING FUTURE RATE CUTS IN MARCH IF DATA POINTS TO INFLATION HITTING 2% THIS YEAR: SOURCES
    • ECB POLICYMAKERS SAY MARCH PIVOT WOULD PAVE WAY FOR RATE CUT MOST LIKELY IN JUNE: SOURCES - Reuters News
  • Still inside technical ranges: Mar'24 10Y futures tap 111-11 high (+12), initial resistance remains at 111-21/112-26+ (20-day EMA / High Jan 12).
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 gain slightly: January 2024 cumulative -.6bp at 5.323%, March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut -45.5% vs. -40.7% this morning w/ cumulative of -12.0bp at 5.209%, May 2024 at -87.3% vs. 79.8% earlier w/ cumulative -33.8bp at 4.991%, June 2024 back over 100% at -102.6% vs. 97.5% earlier w/ cumulative -59.5bp at 4.734%. Fed terminal at 5.325% in Feb'24.

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