August 16, 2023 17:33 GMT
Extending Lows Ahead July FOMC Minutes
US TSY FUTURES
- Intermediate to long end rates continue to extend lows, curves bear steepening ahead the FOMC July minutes release at the top of the hour.
- Front month Sep'23 10Y futures mark 109-19 low (-5.5). Initial technical support at 109-11.5 (Low Aug 15), followed by 109-10.5 (Low Nov 4 2022, cont). Below that, major technical support at 108-26. (Low Oct 21 2022, cont).
- With short end rates outperforming, 3M10Y curve +4.149 at -120.722, 2Y10Y +3.099 at -71.660.
- Rate hike projections through year end are steady to mildly higher, Sep 20 FOMC is 11% w/ implied rate change of +2.7bp to 5.356%. November cumulative of +10.1bp at 5.43, December cumulative of 8.6bp at 5.415%. Fed terminal up to 5.43% in Nov'23.