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Extending Midday Highs Ahead Tsy 7Y Auction

US TSY FUTURES
  • Curves have bounced off deeper inverted levels in the last few minutes(2s10s +.286 at -99.279 vs. -102.289 low), short end outperforming as futures across the board extend session highs, recovering from earlier comment from Chairman Powell at ECB CB forum that consecutive rate hikes are not off the table spurred fast sell interest in short to intermediates.
  • Front month 2Y futures +3.12 at 102-00.62, 10Y futures +11 at 113-05.5, nearing initial technical resistance of 113-18 (June 15 high) followed by 114-00 June 13 high.
  • Despite the bounce, bears still hold sway at current levels. Recent pullback in 10s held inside the recent range and the contract remains in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bearish.
  • Meanwhile, market confidence of a hike at the July 26 FOMC has climbed to 79% with implied rate of +19.8bp to 5.267%. September cumulative of +24.4bp at 5.315% while November is pricing in just over a 25bp hike with cumulative at 29.3bp at 5.364%. Fed terminal at 5.385% in Nov'23 this morning.
  • Intermediates drawing some additional pre-auction short ests ahead the Tsy $35B 7Y note auction at the top of the hour.
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