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Extending Post-Data Lows

US TSY FUTURES
  • Treasury futures back under pressure following the mixed employment data (strong May jobs gains and up-revisions for prior two data sets, vs. a higher unemployment level - see 0945ET bullet for more).
  • Front month 10Y Sep'23 futures extends to new low of 114-04 (-19.5), nearing initial technical support of 114-00 (May 31 Low), key support and the bear trigger is 112-29+, the May 26 / 30 low.
  • Recent Block sale in front month Sep'23 2Y futures contributing to curves extending inversion (2s10s taps -80.114 low).
  • Meanwhile, a projected rate hike chances at the June 14 FOMC remains static while July inches higher: Fed funds implied 25bp hike on the June 14 FOMC is currently at 8.0bp vs. 7.5bp pre-data, July cumulative +20.5bp (+17.6bp prior) to implied rate of 5.290%.
  • September and November cumulative are at +16.9bp and +4.8bp respectively (+11.4 and -3.9 prior) while Dec'23 cumulative has climbed to -11.5bp vs. -21.8bp, at 4.970%. Fed Terminal has risen to 5.285% in Aug'23.
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