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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
The below is taken from the MNI US CPI Preview (found here).
- Core services ex OER & primary rents (“supercore”) inflation was trimmed from 0.40% to 0.34% M/M for December by the above seasonal revisions.
- Unlike broader core CPI, there weren’t offsetting revisions earlier in Oct and Nov, which meant the three-month rate was lowered from 4.3% to 4.0% annualized.
- That’s still far stronger than the 2.2% annualized averaged in the three months to December for PCE supercore, though, leaving a particularly large wedge between the two (although PCE inflation will be revised for 4Q23 on Feb 28 (qtrly)/Feb 29 (mthly) allowing for last week’s CPI and upcoming PPI revisions).
- Complicated by Friday’s comprehensive revisions landing so close to analyst publications, the limited estimates we have seen have an unusually wide range: Nomura look for 0.33% M/M, Morgan Stanley 0.46% M/M and TD Securities a very strong 0.87% M/M.
- Note that even the lowest of the three, a 0.33% increase in January, would see the three-month rate re-accelerate to 4.5% annualized as the 0.21% M/M from October drops out, whilst the six-month rate would be unchanged at 4.5% annualized.
- It’s worth highlighting CPI supercore’s volatility - the series is currently seen to have averaged 4.7% in Q1, 2.1% in Q2, 4.9% in Q3 and 4.0% in Q4.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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