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Eyes turn to Turkey as.............>

EMERGING MARKETS
EMERGING MARKETS: Eyes turn to Turkey as substantial policy action expected
-TRY trades relatively mixed as markets sit on the sidelines ahead of the CBRT
rate decision at 1200BST/0700ET. Policy action is expected after the previous
governor got the sack, but there are a very wide range of estimates, with some
looking for cuts as deep as 800bps. Overnight vols suggest markets are pricing
in a substantial move in USD/TRY today, with break-evens on an ATM straddle
implying a move of over 600 pips.
-Elsewhere, ZAR sits weaker as Moody's issued a broadly negative judgement on
the government's plans for Eskom, with the new funding blueprints seen worsening
the deficit materially. USD/ZAR hit the week's highs at 13.9776 on the news.
-In Asia-Pac markets, the KRW followed the KOSPI lower and was the worst
performing currency in the region. USD/KRW continues to trade either side of the
50-dma, however, with a momentum pick-up in either direction now needed to
confirm the next move. A lower, flatter Russian sovereign yield curve has also
worked in favour of the RUB as markets position for the Russian central bank
decision on Friday.
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