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EUROPEAN INFLATION: EZ Final HICP Broadly In-Line With Flash; Sticky Services

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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Eurozone December Final HICP was unrevised from the flash reading on a rounded basis at 2.4% Y/Y (from 2.2% in Nov) and 0.4% M/M (-0.3% in Nov). Unrounded Y/Y was revised down 0.01% to 2.43% Y/Y (2.44% flash, 2.24% prior). On a M/M basis it was unrevised from flash at 0.36% ( -0.32% prior) non-seasonally adjusted.

  • Core inflation (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was unrevised versus flash at 2.71% Y/Y (2.72% in Nov), remaining around the 2.7% Y/Y level for the fourth consecutive month. On a monthly basis it was also unrevised at 0.45% (-0.57% in Nov).
  • The final reading emphasises the stickiness of services seen in the flash print, with services' contribution to headline HICP rising 0.04ppts to 1.78ppts - the highest contribution since August. The Y/Y figure rose to 3.97% Y/Y (vs 3.92% in Nov), reaffirming the flash estimate.
  • Energy was unrevised from flash at 0.1% Y/Y (vs -2.0% in Nov), moving into positive territory on a Y/Y basis for the first time since July. The contribution to headline HICP was 0.01ppts (vs -0.19ppts prior).
  • "Non-energy industrial goods'" (i.e. core goods') contribution fell to 0.13ppts (from 0.17ppts in Nov). Y/Y print again was unrevised from flash at 0.51% ( 0.65% prior), with M/M at -0.10% (vs -0.11% flash, 0.00% prior).
  • "Unprocessed foods'" contribution fell to 0.07ppts (from 0.10ppts), and "Processed foods, alcohol and tobacco" contribution was broadly unchanged at 0.44pts (vs 0.43ppts prior).
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Eurozone December Final HICP was unrevised from the flash reading on a rounded basis at 2.4% Y/Y (from 2.2% in Nov) and 0.4% M/M (-0.3% in Nov). Unrounded Y/Y was revised down 0.01% to 2.43% Y/Y (2.44% flash, 2.24% prior). On a M/M basis it was unrevised from flash at 0.36% ( -0.32% prior) non-seasonally adjusted.

  • Core inflation (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was unrevised versus flash at 2.71% Y/Y (2.72% in Nov), remaining around the 2.7% Y/Y level for the fourth consecutive month. On a monthly basis it was also unrevised at 0.45% (-0.57% in Nov).
  • The final reading emphasises the stickiness of services seen in the flash print, with services' contribution to headline HICP rising 0.04ppts to 1.78ppts - the highest contribution since August. The Y/Y figure rose to 3.97% Y/Y (vs 3.92% in Nov), reaffirming the flash estimate.
  • Energy was unrevised from flash at 0.1% Y/Y (vs -2.0% in Nov), moving into positive territory on a Y/Y basis for the first time since July. The contribution to headline HICP was 0.01ppts (vs -0.19ppts prior).
  • "Non-energy industrial goods'" (i.e. core goods') contribution fell to 0.13ppts (from 0.17ppts in Nov). Y/Y print again was unrevised from flash at 0.51% ( 0.65% prior), with M/M at -0.10% (vs -0.11% flash, 0.00% prior).
  • "Unprocessed foods'" contribution fell to 0.07ppts (from 0.10ppts), and "Processed foods, alcohol and tobacco" contribution was broadly unchanged at 0.44pts (vs 0.43ppts prior).
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