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EZ Retail Trade broadly in-line with expectations


Eurozone volume of retail trade was down -1.1% M/M in December (vs -1.0% M/M consensus, +0.3% M/M revised prior) - the largest fall since December 2022. The upward revision to the November data saw the Y/Y print come in line with expectations at -0.8% Y/Y (vs -0.85 Y/Y consensus, -0.4% Y/Y revised prior).

  • All subcomponents saw a fall in volume of retail trade M/M, with 'Automotive fuel in specialised stores' volume of retail trade decreasing for the first time since August 2023 at -0.5% M/M, taking the Y/Y value for the component to -6.2% Y/Y in December 2023 (vs -3.3% Y/Y prior).
  • Mail orders and internet were down -3.7%M/M in December after a -0.1%M/M fall in November, pointing to some potential seasonality issues around Black Friday sales.
  • We will be looking more into the details of the data across the final two months of the year later.
  • Most of the major eurozone members saw M/M falls in retail trade: Belgium saw one of the largest M/M declines (-2.0% M/M), followed by the Netherlands (-1.7% M/M), Germany (-1.6% M/M), and Spain (-1.4% M/M).

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