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Factory Orders Continue LT Downtrend Also On "Core" Measure (2/2)

GERMAN DATA
  • Looking at the individual components of the release, even excluding the large one-off orders in December, the orders decline in January was broad-based, with negative monthly prints in all major categories except intermediate goods. Specifically, we note (all excl. one-off big tickets):
    • Intermediate goods +0.2% M/M (vs +0.9% prior), -3.3% 3M/3M (vs -1.3% prior)
    • Investment goods -3.0% M/M (+1.5% prior), -0.2% 3M/3M (-1.6% prior)
    • Consumption goods -5.2% M/M (-2.5% prior), -2.3% 3M/3M (-0.1% prior)
    • Durable goods -5.0% M/M (-17.0% prior), -4.5% 3M/3M (+1.0% prior)
    • Non-durable goods -5.3% M/M (+4.3% prior), -1.4% 3M/3M (-0.5% prior)
  • Real turnover in manufacturing, which is published alongside the factory orders data, also saw another weak print, coming in at -2.0% M/M (SA) and -3.5% Y/Y (NSA).
  • Taking all things together, January's data suggests the slump in German manufacturing is not really tapering off. The rebasing, of 2021 to 100, shows that January's headline SA index printed at 84.6 - a real decrease of over 15% in slightly more than two years.
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