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Fading Latest US-China Escalation Ahead Of Payrolls

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade modestly cheaper across the curve this morning ahead of payrolls as they consolidate yesterday’s rally after particularly large swings this week (2YY range of 2.815%-3.198%). There has been little obvious haven demand from China cutting ties to the US in retaliation to Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, increasing the risk of miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea with military and maritime lines cut.
  • FOMC speakers continue to push back on yield curve indicators of recession - most recently Mester yesterday - but 2s10s are back near yesterday’s intraday fresh post-2000 lows, currently at -36bps.
  • 2YY +1.6bps at 3.059%, 5YY +0.7bps at 2.799%, 10YY +0.7bps at 2.695% and 30YY +0.7bps at 2.973%.
  • TYU2 trades 6 ticks lower at 120-17+ on soft volumes, towards the middle of the week’s range. Short-term technical trend conditions are bullish whilst above key support at the 50-day EMA of 119-05, whilst resistance is seen at 122-02 (Aug 2 high).
  • Data: Payrolls at 0830ET clearly dominates the docket. See MNI’s full preview here: https://marketnews.com/mni-payrolls-preview-just-how-much-slower
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (’24 voter) at 0800ET with Q&A.
  • No issuance.
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