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Falling Bond Yield Differentials To US

CANADA
  • The relative outperformance of GoCs to Tsys today has seen a further narrowing in the short-end yield differential.
  • With 2Y GoCs up +1.3bps and Tsys +3.bps, the differential is just 2bps, having been 17bps just a week ago and touching 32bps prior to the BoC/FOMC meeting.
  • Combined with the longer end of the curve seeing an increasingly large negative spread, e.g. 10YY diff of -10bps, this has removed a supporting factor for CAD.

Canada GoC 2Y yield (white), UST 2Y yield (yellow) and differential (green). Note that only showing for Canada trading session. Source: Bloomberg

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