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Falling South Korea Exports Continue To Price In Volatile Markets

EQUITIES
  • Momentum on South Korea exports continues to fade as China slowdown combined with the surge in recession fears globally (particularly in Europe) have been weighing on the global economic activity.
  • SK exports rose 5.4% in June, growing at the slowest pace since November 2020 with economists expecting to see a continuation of trade deficit for the time being due to the surge in commodity prices.
  • Macro analysts have historically used South Korea exports as one of the key input when computing a global leading economic indicator.
  • The chart below shows that SK exports have strongly led equities EPS by 3 months in the past two decades, therefore further deceleration in exports and global trade could continue to weigh on risky assets in the near to medium term.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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