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Familiar Dynamics In Play, Westpac's RBNZ Call Change Supports NZD

FOREX

Familiar dynamics remained in the driving seat amid the absence of any fresh macro flow of note. Commodity-tied FX outperformed safe havens, with USD landing at the bottom of the G10 pile following the smooth presidential transition in the U.S. The DXY faltered and USD/JPY ground towards yesterday's low, but neither managed to punch through the worst levels of the prior day.

  • NZD led gainers among its high-beta peers after Westpac said that they don't expect any further OCR cuts in the foreseeable future, scrapping their earlier forecast of two 25bp cuts in May & August. Positive signals surrounding NZ labour market helped keep the kiwi buoyant, with NZD/USD moving through the $0.7200 mark amid broad-based greenback weakness.
  • AUD also caught a bid, albeit AUD/NZD shed a handful of pips and moved under yesterday's low. BBG trader sources flagged demand for Antipodean currencies from offshore funds. Australian unemployment rate declined 0.1pp more than expected, while employment growth matched projections.
  • PBOC fixed USD/CNY at CNY6.4696 and injected CNY 248bn, another day of large injections ahead of scheduled tax payments and Lunar New Year.
  • Cable advanced on dollar weakness, even as the Times reported that UK residents may face EU entry bans under a proposed German plan.
  • The BoJ kicked off a series of today's MonPol decisions, with the ECB, Norges Bank, BI, SARB & CBRT yet to make announcements. Japan's central bank left its main policy settings unch. & implemented some inconsequential tweaks to its economic forecasts.
  • On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims, building permits/housing starts & Philly Fed Survey take focus from here.

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