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Free AccessFamiliar theme, rates recede late......>
US TSY FLOWS: Familiar theme, rates recede late after making strong headway off
lower levels in second half, 10YY new all-time low 1.2408% rebounding to
1.3004%, 30YY new low of 1.7408%, 1.7930% after the bell. Obviously mkts remain
headline sensitive, rates quick to react then settle in w/little follow through.
- Option accts continue to be better buyers upside calls hedging for as many as
three rate cuts by year end (Mar 18 chances of cut appr 64%, while Apr 29 fully
pricing in a 25bps cut w/chances of a 50bps cut on the rise (34.5%). A second
cut just now fully priced in for the Jun 10 meeting with a third cut around the
Nov to Dec meetings. Heavy call option buying underscores/anticipated the moves.
- Prior to late risk-off bid in rates by wide range of accts (Bbg headline:
"CALIFORNIA MONITORING 8400 PEOPLE" for virus rekindled bid), sources reported
real$ selling 2s and buying 10s, fast$ selling flys in the intermediates, real$
buying 7s and 10s, no deal-tied hedging but there were some auction hedge
unwinds/buying earlier. Prop acct selling strength in intermediates as levels
recede slightly off latest move. $32B 7Y Note auction tailed: awarded 1.247%
(1.570% last month) vs. 1.232% WI.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.