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Far-Right RN Short Of Majority In Elabe Poll

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Following on from our earlier bullet (see 'FRANCE: Newest Poll Shows Far-Right Lead Shrinking As Left Alliance Gains', 1201BST) the latest Elabe poll published late on 12 June, has seat range projections showing that - if these numbers were reflected in the legislative election - no single party or alliance would cross the 289-seat majority threshold.

  • The far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN)'s range runs from 220 to 270 seats, making them the largest party in the National Assembly even at their lowest ebb. The leftist grouping of the New Popular Front (NFP) and miscellaneous left is projected to come second with between 150 and 190 seats.
  • President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance-led bloc is projected to come third with between 90 and 130 seats.
  • These would mark a major shift compared to the 2022 election in which Renaissance and its allies won 245 seats, the leftist NUPES alliance (largeslt same as NFP) came second on 131 seats and the RN third on 89 seats.
  • RN President Jordan Bardella would be in prime position to serve as next French PM. His party would have to either govern in a minority, or siphon of right-wingers from the conservative Les Republicains (LR) or other parties of the right to reach the majority threshold.
  • Thefracturing of LR on 12 June, with leader Eric Ciotti expelled for seeking an alliance with RN, could see more right-wing voters move into the RN camp in future polling.

Chart 1. Seat Range Projections based on 11-12 June Elabe Poll

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Following on from our earlier bullet (see 'FRANCE: Newest Poll Shows Far-Right Lead Shrinking As Left Alliance Gains', 1201BST) the latest Elabe poll published late on 12 June, has seat range projections showing that - if these numbers were reflected in the legislative election - no single party or alliance would cross the 289-seat majority threshold.

  • The far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN)'s range runs from 220 to 270 seats, making them the largest party in the National Assembly even at their lowest ebb. The leftist grouping of the New Popular Front (NFP) and miscellaneous left is projected to come second with between 150 and 190 seats.
  • President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance-led bloc is projected to come third with between 90 and 130 seats.
  • These would mark a major shift compared to the 2022 election in which Renaissance and its allies won 245 seats, the leftist NUPES alliance (largeslt same as NFP) came second on 131 seats and the RN third on 89 seats.
  • RN President Jordan Bardella would be in prime position to serve as next French PM. His party would have to either govern in a minority, or siphon of right-wingers from the conservative Les Republicains (LR) or other parties of the right to reach the majority threshold.
  • Thefracturing of LR on 12 June, with leader Eric Ciotti expelled for seeking an alliance with RN, could see more right-wing voters move into the RN camp in future polling.

Chart 1. Seat Range Projections based on 11-12 June Elabe Poll

Keep reading...Show less