Feb retail sales -0.1% vs +0.4% expected....>

US DATA: Feb retail sales -0.1% vs +0.4% expected (+0.2% whisper), +0.2% 

ex mtr veh vs +0.5% expected, showing surprising weakness that followed 

an upward revision to January and a downward revision to December.

- Analysts have a tendency to aim too low with their ex-auto forecasts 

in Feb, so today's data are a deviation from that trend. However, an MNI 

preview showed downside risks to the forecasts.

- Motor vehicle sales -0.9%, a larger decline than analysts had expected, 

accounting for much of the forecast miss for overall sales. 

- Feb sales +0.3% ex. mv and gas and +0.1% ex auto, bldg materials, gas 

and food services, both improved from January, but not extremely strong.

- Gas station sales -1.2% (sales ex. gas flat), but bldg mat +1.9% and 

food services +0.2%. The remaining components were mixed.

- Total sales +0.3% in 1Q vs 4Q average at an annual rate and were +2.2% 

annualized ex motor vehicles and +1.0% ex autos, building materials, 

gas, and food services, suggesting milder 1Q PCE.