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February IPCA-15 Inflation Data Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • The mid-February IPCA inflation readings will likely show headline Brazilian inflation accelerating for the period, however, the annual headline rate is expected to dip from the January data released on February 09.
  • BRL has been continuing to find comfort from the debate around adjusting the inflation target subsiding for now. With the focus on today’s release it is worth noting that on Wednesday, economists raised their 2023 and 2024 inflation forecasts for the fifth-straight week in the latest BCB Focus survey and now see year-end inflation at 5.89%.
  • Data is scheduled for 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • Feb. IPCA-15 est. +0.72% M/m, prior 0.55%
    • Feb. IPCA-15 est. +5.59% Y/y, prior 5.87% (Jan full print 5.77% Y/y)
  • Analysts are noting that a seasonal spike in school tuitions may be partly to blame for the rise in headline inflation and transportation costs may also gain steam as gasoline prices rose at the margin.
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