Free Trial

Fed Cut Expectations Hovering at Post-CPI Levels

  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged since Friday’s close for Nov but otherwise marginally higher for subsequent meetings, pushing a little further off pre-CPI recent lows.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +2bp Nov and +9bp to a terminal 5.42% in Dec/Jan (+1bp/+1.5bp).
  • Cuts from terminal: 27bp to Jun’24 and 78bp to Dec’24, with both keeping to similar levels post-CPI.
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee (’23 voter) told the FT this morning that the slowdown in inflation is undeniably a trend. 2 x Harker (’23) ahead at 1030ET and 1630ET, both with text, closely following Friday’s remarks which included that higher rates are putting pressure on the US budget and a point where that pressure becomes an issue isn’t far off.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.