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Fed done, now for the ECB

BONDS
  • Core fixed income and STIR futures are all lower this morning, following on from the Fed's more hawkish-than-expected dot plot at yesterday's meeting (although we note that EGBs and gilts are off the lows seen near the European cash open while Treasuries are also off their lows of the day, and the UST intraday low remains above yesterday's low).
  • Focus now switches to the ECB where a 25bp hike today is widely expected along with confirmation of the previous decision to end APP reinvestments in July. Absent a sharp drop in core inflation, we would expect the ECB to hike again in July. Even if the ECB were to raise rates further in September, the MNI Markets team expects that this would likely be the last turn of the screw.
  • Later today will also see US retail sales, import/export prices, industrial production and business inventory data.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-2+ today at 112-25+ with 10y UST yields up 1.8bp at 3.807% and 2y yields up 3.5bp at 4.724%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.47 today at 132.82 with 10y Bund yields up 4.6bp at 2.494% and Schatz yields up 6.8bp at 3.068%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.12 today at 945.56 with 10y yields up 1.8bp at 4.406% and 2y yields up 4.8bp at 4.856%.
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