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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates are holding the bulk of the shunt higher after surprise upward revisions to Q1 GDP and a drop in both initial and continuing jobless claims.
- It was a move that briefly saw 5Y real yields exceeds 2% for the first time since early 2008, having poked above cycle highs seen in late-Sep and mid-Oct towards the end of the Fed hiking in 75bp clips.
- There is currently +21bp priced for Jul (+2bp on the day), the terminal remains in Nov but now a cumulative +36bp (+6bp), with just 3bp of cuts to year-end (+9bp).
- Even larger moves for 2024 see a significant trimming in inversion, with now 59bp of cuts from terminal to Jun’24 (from 72bp yesterday) and 140bp of cuts from terminal to Dec’24 (from 147bps).
- Tomorrow offers a fresh test of this move, with monthly PCE for May (after today's downward revision in core PCE from 4.96% to 4.88% annualized was faded), the MNI Chicago PMI offering a last hint at manufacturing activity ahead of Monday’s ISM survey and the finalized U.Mich survey.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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