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Fed Funds Maintaining Post-Payrolls Reaction

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have broadly kept to Friday’s post payrolls move lower off highs.
  • 56.5bp for Dec (+0.5bp), 98bp to 4.83% for Feb’23 (+1.5bp), a terminal 5.1% in Jun’23 (+1bp) and 4.82% Dec’23 (+1.5bp).
  • Fedspeak late in the session from ’22 voters Collins & Mester (1540ET) and then ’24 voter Barkin (1800ET). Collins said post-payrolls that the Sept SEP forms a starting point for the rate peak with the possibility of a higher path whilst Mester last spoke Oct 11 before last month’s CPI beat.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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