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Fed Hike Expectations Pause Ahead Of ISM On Monday

STIR FUTURES
  • The Fed Funds implied hike of 67bp for Nov has largely clawed back the dip seen from the MNI Chicago PMI miss and then downward revision to U.Mich 5-10Y inflation expectations.
  • Equally little net change for subsequent meetings vs the start of the session: terminal 4.46% in Mar’23 (-2bp from yesterday) and 4.22% for Dec’23 (-3.5bp) both more than 30bps off Monday’s highs.
  • ISM mfg on Monday. The sharp move lower in the Chicago PMI adds downside risk to a consensus call -0.4pts to 52.8, which if materialised could further weigh on 2023 rates.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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