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Fed Hike Path Holding Onto Significant Lurch Higher

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes continue to retrace some of the CPI surge higher but still see very large increases on the day.
  • Currently showing 79bp for the Nov 2 FOMC (+5bp) and cumulative 140bp to 4.48% for Dec (+10bp) as markets entertain prospects of a fifth 75bp hike in Dec with Barclays earlier calling for such.
  • Terminal rate expectations see the largest increases to 4.85% (+18.5bp), still peaking in Mar’23, before 4.50% for Dec’23 (+14.5bp) as it comes closer to the FOMC's 4.6% median dot for end-2023.
  • George (’22), Cook (Gov) and Waller (Gov) speak tomorrow with Bullard (’22) on Saturday.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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