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Fed Hike Path Sees Modest Cooling On PCE Miss, Bostic

STIR FUTURES
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hikes have extended a pre-PCE move lower to sit with 64-65bps for the Sept FOMC (off 68bps early morning, before 129bps to 3.62% in Dec and 144bps to 3.77% in Mar’23 (off 3.81%).
  • It follows softer than expected core PCE inflation and consumer spending, helped by Bostic’s (’24 voter) early reaction to PCE inflation that he now leans to a 50bp hike (previously saw either 50 or 75bp). Further out, he sees rates holding in the restrictive 3.5-3.75% range “if the economy behaves”, having got there by year-end.
  • Bostic doesn’t have a recession in his forecast whilst Harker (’23), now speaking, doesn’t rule out a recession but sees it as short and shallow whilst looking to take rates into restrictive territory “clearly above 3%”.
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