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Fed Hike Pricing Unwinds ISM Hit

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds have reversed the slide after the ISM manufacturing miss for 2022 meetings, reverting to the 68.5bps priced for the July meeting first thing having touched 63bps after the data.
  • The 120bps for Sep (two meetings) and 173bps for Dec (four meetings) may have recovered but have maintained a clear downward trend since Wednesday to the bottom of the post-FOMC range.
  • Declines are more pronounced further out though, with the peak in rates now at 3.36% from 3.41% as the US came in this morning and down from a high of 3.66% on Wed.
  • ECB pricing has cooled over the day though, with ECB-dated OIS showing 27bps for the Jul 21 meeting (29bp early Fri am) and 138bp over the four meetings to year-end (from 145bps).
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  • Hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds have reversed the slide after the ISM manufacturing miss for 2022 meetings, reverting to the 68.5bps priced for the July meeting first thing having touched 63bps after the data.
  • The 120bps for Sep (two meetings) and 173bps for Dec (four meetings) may have recovered but have maintained a clear downward trend since Wednesday to the bottom of the post-FOMC range.
  • Declines are more pronounced further out though, with the peak in rates now at 3.36% from 3.41% as the US came in this morning and down from a high of 3.66% on Wed.
  • ECB pricing has cooled over the day though, with ECB-dated OIS showing 27bps for the Jul 21 meeting (29bp early Fri am) and 138bp over the four meetings to year-end (from 145bps).