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Fed Hikes Continue To Be Trimmed

  • Now pricing 79bp for Wednesday’s FOMC for -1bp on the day but -2.5bps from a peak seen prior to soft US data (Philly miss, initial claims climbing further in payrolls reference week) and then continuing the move through the ECB presser.
  • Beyond, pricing 141.5bp for Sep (-1bp but high of 148bp post ECB hike pre presser) as a third consecutive 75bp hike starts to be questioned a bit more, whist the 193bp of hikes to the currently implied terminal of 3.51% in Feb’23 is down -6.5bps.
  • A larger slide in end-2023 rates sees inversion increase back to 55bps of cuts through 2023.

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