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Fed Hikes Firm Slightly After Yesterday’s Powell Slide

STIR FUTURES
  • The FOMC-dated Fed Funds rate for the Dec meeting has ground ~2bp higher since the initial reaction to Powell’s presser, sitting at 2.79% but still down from yesterday’s high of 2.98%.
  • Little change for nearer-term meetings post-presser reaction, largely reflecting guidance that 75bp hikes aren’t actively being considered but with 50bp hikes on the table at the next couple of meetings (Jun 53bps, Jul 102bps, Sep 142bps).
  • The media blackout ends tonight at midnight ET. NY Fed’s Williams (voter) is first on the slate at 0915ET tomorrow with opening remarks at an event on environmental economics, followed by Kashkari (’23), Bostic (’24) plus Bullard (’22), Waller (voter) and Daly (’24) all speaking late.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rateSource: Bloomberg

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  • The FOMC-dated Fed Funds rate for the Dec meeting has ground ~2bp higher since the initial reaction to Powell’s presser, sitting at 2.79% but still down from yesterday’s high of 2.98%.
  • Little change for nearer-term meetings post-presser reaction, largely reflecting guidance that 75bp hikes aren’t actively being considered but with 50bp hikes on the table at the next couple of meetings (Jun 53bps, Jul 102bps, Sep 142bps).
  • The media blackout ends tonight at midnight ET. NY Fed’s Williams (voter) is first on the slate at 0915ET tomorrow with opening remarks at an event on environmental economics, followed by Kashkari (’23), Bostic (’24) plus Bullard (’22), Waller (voter) and Daly (’24) all speaking late.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rateSource: Bloomberg