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Fed Hikes Maintain Post-ECB Move Ahead Of CPI

STIR FUTURES
  • Ahead of US CPI, implied Fed hikes have held onto increases seen after the ECB yesterday.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds imply a 52bp hike next week with a cumulative 104bps for Jul. Meetings further out, likely more sensitive to CPI, have a joint post-May FOMC high of 146bps for Sep and a high of 209bps to year-end.
  • Link to CPI preview: https://marketnews.com/mni-us-cpi-preview-moderating-very-slightly. Note the typo on Treasuries above 3%: it meant to say across 5-30Y tenors rather than across the curve although 3s have since exceeded that handle as well.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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  • Ahead of US CPI, implied Fed hikes have held onto increases seen after the ECB yesterday.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds imply a 52bp hike next week with a cumulative 104bps for Jul. Meetings further out, likely more sensitive to CPI, have a joint post-May FOMC high of 146bps for Sep and a high of 209bps to year-end.
  • Link to CPI preview: https://marketnews.com/mni-us-cpi-preview-moderating-very-slightly. Note the typo on Treasuries above 3%: it meant to say across 5-30Y tenors rather than across the curve although 3s have since exceeded that handle as well.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg