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Fed Implied Rates At Pre-Minutes Levels

STIR
  • Fed funds implied rates have cooled slightly before the NY session gets underway to leave them unchanged from levels from shortly before the FOMC minutes having seen an intraday increase yesterday on stronger data.
  • There remains just +3bp priced for Sept building to a cumulative +10.5bp for a 5.44% terminal in Nov. It’s then followed by 47bp of cuts from terminal to Jun’24 and 113bp from terminal to Dec’24, at the low end of the post-July FOMC range.
  • There’s unusually little Fedspeak scheduled ahaed with Goolsbee (’23 voter) next up on Tue (Aug 22) – on the shortlist for one of the “couple” officials who favored holding rates steady or could have supported such a proposal in July – with focus instead geared towards Jackson Hole proceedings Aug 24-26.

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